Here's the scariest part of NAFTA, according to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross


Scotiabank says things are looking rosy in Mexico as well, where auto production has more than tripled since the mid-1990s and exports of vehicles and parts have surged tenfold, such that Mexico now accounts for 6.5 per cent of global auto trade.

One literal barrier that could derail a deal is President Donald Trump's border wall, which Napolitano called "a political symbol and the wrong political symbol because it signifies that the United States somehow wants to wall itself off from Mexico". The declining USA share of content in imports from Canada and Mexico puts those jobs at risk.

Mexican officials have said that Mexican imports into the United States contain an average of 40 percent USA content, arguing that the United States benefits from stronger economic integration with Mexico.

Behind the scenes, talks between Canada, the US and Mexico have been described as professional and broad, since negotiators have mostly been focusing on areas of agreement.

The impetus for getting it done by then stems largely from the timing of the USA midterm elections in November of next year, and Mexico's general election in July 2018.

Roughly 75 per cent of the value of all auto parts used in North American-built vehicles is sourced within NAFTA, well above the 62.5 per cent threshold required for finished automobiles to move duty-free between NAFTA countries. Specifically, the president has evinced a desire to prevent "American" jobs from being sent to Mexico, where workers are (typically) willing to accept lower wages. Another tricky issue is labor, given complaints from USA and Canadian unions that Mexico's low wages give it a manufacturing advantage. The United States is also expected to present proposals on intellectual property and investment, sources with knowledge of discussions said.

Napolitano, who was secretary of Homeland Security under President Barack Obama when the DACA program began in 2012, also expressed doubt that Congress will be able to approve the DREAM Act before March, when Trump has said he'll rescind the deferred deportation program. "He said he wanted it raised higher", Mr. Dias said.

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If we don't fix the rules of origin, negotiations on the rest of the agreement will fail to meaningfully shift the trade imbalance.

"This data certainly gives the Canadian negotiators a road map in a sense of priority for the Canadian public", Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, told The Globe. The Liberals also want to add new NAFTA chapters on gender rights and Indigenous peoples. The poll is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The teams will meet in Canada in late September and return to the United States in October, with additional rounds being planned for the remainder of the year.

The Dearborn Democrat also wants to challenge foreign governments that purposely weaken the US dollar in a bid to boost profits for their nations' industries. In 2016, USA farmers exported more than $38 billion of products to the two nations, or 28 percent of all US agricultural exports.

An agreement that would see Mexico sign on to a NAFTA clause governing oil exports may be one of the first significant products of the renegotiation talks this weekend in Ottawa.

So rather than being oversold, the projected benefits of FTAs to the United States tend to be understated, as was the case with NAFTA, which has been an overwhelming success for American agriculture and for many other sectors of the USA economy.

"I think we can't be too naive to think that this is going to go really easily, and will be wrapped up really quickly, and that the Americans are going to be easy to deal with because they've got a Trump agenda", Ambrose said.